The Framework
A note on first principles. Why the Smil-Rosling synthesis is the analytical engine of Plain Sight Research — and why it keeps producing China.
After Dark 暗摆着 — companion essays where the analytical call gets made before the evidence is fully in. Speculative by design. Predictions still graded publicly.
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After Dark · 暗摆着
The Scorecard: Alibaba Q4 FY2026
My quarterly prediction was a disaster. The quarter itself was the strongest forward guidance Eddie Wu has ever given. Cloud margins are better than we modeled. The $100B target is confirmed as pure cloud.
The Dark Matter of AI in China
China's AI programme didn't start with DeepSeek. It started in 2016, with Demis Hassabis. R1 was the visible flame. The wildfire is AI for materials.
Solar, Batteries and…Hauling Rocks?
Chinese miners expanded copper 16% and gold 43% during the supercycle. Western majors contracted 18–60%. The reason isn't state policy. It's cheaper equipment, lower-grade capability, and a capital cost advantage.
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More from Plain Sight
Swimming With the Current: Alibaba at $124
A $295B megacap trading at 40–45% of fair value. Cloud growing 36%. AI revenue in its tenth consecutive triple-digit quarter. The algorithm reads collapse; it's actually a pivot.
The Oil Surplus Nobody Is Modeling
Permanent structural surplus by 2028–2029. Five demand-destruction forces the consensus underestimates. A Hormuz conflict accelerates the timeline; it doesn't reverse it.
If China Leads in Solar, Why Is It Building More Coal?
Three answers to the coal question. The third one — coal-to-olefins — is the thesis nobody in Western energy markets has priced.
Reading Words: What the 15th Five-Year Plan Actually Says
The FYP as deployment order, not speculative bet. Why TFP is China's new organizational scorecard, and what RMB internationalization actually means.
The IEA Error: Why Every China Forecast Is Wrong in the Same Direction
China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.