Plain Sight
明摆着 · plain to see, once you know where to look
The Electrostate Series – the core thesis: how China assembled a sovereign electrical supply, how demand converts to consume it, and what the stack becomes as an export. Foundations, three parts, one companion. Series page →
Latest
Cover image – The EUV Gap

The EUV Gap

China is blocked at one machine and moving on everything else. Most of the frontier no longer runs through the light.

Plain Sight · August 2026 · 中文版
Cover image – Beyond Hormuz Lies an Oil Surplus

Beyond Hormuz Lies an Oil Surplus

The world lost six million barrels a day and the price went back to where it started. The surplus was already there; the war postponed it.

Plain Sight · August 2026 · 中文版
The Electrostate Series →

  1. The Framework

    The Smil-Rosling synthesis – the analytical engine the series runs on.

    Foundations · May 2026 · 中文版

  2. Building the Electrostate

    The supply side: generation, storage, transmission, nuclear.

    Part 1 · May 2026 · 中文版

  3. Becoming the Electrostate

    The demand side: five migrations, 30% electrification toward 60%.

    Part 2 · July 2026 · 中文版

  4. Exporting the Electrostate

    The stack as a sovereign-grade export to the Global South.

    Part 3 · Forthcoming

Cover image – Becoming the Electrostate

Becoming the Electrostate

Sinopec dated the gasoline peak to 2023; the actuals ran faster. The demand did not vanish – it changed meters. Five migrations carry electrification from 30% toward 60%.

Plain Sight · Part 2 · July 2026 · 中文版
Cover image – Building the Electrostate

Building the Electrostate

UK coal. US petroleum. China sovereign electricity. The supply stack, assembled – and a nuclear fleet built at a cost the West no longer remembers how to match.

Plain Sight · Part 1 · May 2026 · 中文版
Cover image – The Framework

The Framework

A note on first principles. Why the Smil-Rosling synthesis is the analytical engine of Plain Sight Research – and why it keeps producing China.

Plain Sight · May 2026 · 中文版
Archive
Cover image

Swimming With the Current: Alibaba

A $295bn megacap at 40–45% of fair value, and the quarter that graded the call. The algorithm reads collapse; the segment breakdown reads pivot.

May 2026
Cover image

Forecasting Chinese Exports

China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.

March 2026

About Plain Sight

Independent research on China's energy transition, industrial strategy, and the emerging Electrostate thesis – the idea that China's next export isn't products but integrated energy infrastructure, sold as sovereign-grade packages to the Global South.

The method: take Chinese stated policy targets at face value and make timestamped predictions. 实事求是 – seek truth from facts.

Plain Sight After Dark is a companion series where the call gets made before the evidence is fully in. Speculative by design.

If you work in energy infrastructure, industrial strategy, or resource development and want to compare notes: [email protected]

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