The Electrostate Series

The Electrostate Series

Britain's industrial revolution ran on coal it owned. The American century ran on petroleum it controlled. China is assembling the first economy whose energy base is electricity it manufactures rather than fuel it extracts – and then selling the capability. Three parts: building the supply stack at home, becoming a fully electrified economy, and exporting the whole stack to the Global South.

  1. The Framework

    The Smil-Rosling synthesis – the analytical engine the series runs on.

    Foundations · May 2026 · 中文版

  2. Building the Electrostate

    The supply side: generation, storage, transmission, nuclear.

    Part 1 · May 2026 · 中文版

  3. Becoming the Electrostate

    The demand side: five migrations, 30% electrification toward 60%.

    Part 2 · July 2026 · 中文版

  4. Exporting the Electrostate

    The stack as a sovereign-grade export to the Global South.

    Part 3 · Forthcoming

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Swimming With the Current: Alibaba

A $295bn megacap at 40–45% of fair value, and the quarter that graded the call. The algorithm reads collapse; the segment breakdown reads pivot.

May 2026
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Forecasting Chinese Exports

China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.

March 2026