Prediction Register

Open
$4.0tnMar 2026
Prediction

China’s 2026 goods exports clear $4.0 trillion, against a consensus of $3.6–3.7tn.

Jan 2027
OutcomeOpen

GACC publishes the full-year total, on the US dollar basis, in January 2027.

Forecasting Chinese Exports →

105 mbpdAug 2026
Prediction

World oil demand in 2030 is 105 ± 1.5 mbpd.

2030
OutcomeOpen

The IEA’s first published estimate for 2030 settles it.1

Beyond Hormuz →

1–2 mbpdAug 2026
Prediction

United States oil production falls 1–2 mbpd by 2028, from roughly 13.8 mbpd in 2026.

2028
OutcomeOpen

EIA monthly crude production for 2028.2

Beyond Hormuz →

Resolved
¥45–50bnApr 2026
Prediction

Alibaba Cloud revenue of ¥45–50bn in the March 2026 quarter.

¥41.6bnMay 2026
OutcomeMissed

Segment revenue grew 38% and external revenue 40%.3 The direction held; the level did not.

Swimming With the Current →

¥37–39bnApr 2026
Prediction

Alibaba China E-commerce Group adjusted EBITA of ¥37–39bn in the March 2026 quarter.

¥24.0bnMay 2026
OutcomeWrong

Against ¥39.7bn a year earlier.3 Quick-commerce volume grew faster than unit economics improved, so the burn rose rather than tapered.

Swimming With the Current →

¥10bnMay 2026
Prediction

Model and application services ARR clears ¥10bn by the June 2026 quarter.

¥16bnAug 2026
OutcomeConfirmed

Stated on the August call, with the ¥30bn year-end target reaffirmed.4

The Scorecard →

45%May 2026
Prediction

Alibaba Cloud external revenue grows 45% or better in the June 2026 quarter.

45%Aug 2026
OutcomeExact

External-customer revenue growth as reported.5

The Scorecard →

10%May 2026
Prediction

Cloud adjusted EBITA margin clears 10% by the September 2026 quarter.

11.6%Aug 2026
OutcomeConfirmed

Adjusted EBITA of ¥5.63bn on ¥48.44bn of segment revenue, one quarter inside the horizon.5

The Scorecard →

Notes
  1. Two IEA series exist and they are not interchangeable. This grades against the annual demand series in the Oil Market Report, not the medium-term Oil 2025, which sits about 1.1 mbpd away on the same year.

  2. Graded on outcome rather than mechanism: production flat or higher in 2028 fails the claim whatever the cause.

  3. Alibaba China E-commerce Group and Cloud Intelligence Group segment lines, March 2026 quarter. Alibaba Group Announces March Quarter 2026 and Fiscal Year 2026 Results.

  4. The series is the annualized recurring revenue of Alibaba’s model and application services, including MaaS, given on the earnings call rather than in the results announcement.

    It is not the AI-related product revenue line, ¥12.38bn for the same quarter, which counts quarterly revenue across every AI product.

  5. AI Cloud and Compute Services, June 2026 quarter: Cloud Intelligence Group combined with T-Head, prior periods recast to the new structure. Revenue ¥48,437mn, adjusted EBITA ¥5,628mn against ¥2,419mn a year earlier. Alibaba Group Announces June Quarter 2026 Results.