After Dark 01
The Dark Matter of AI in China
China's AI programme didn't start with DeepSeek. It started in 2016, with Demis Hassabis. R1 was the visible flame. The wildfire is AI for materials.
More from Plain Sight
The Electrostate Architecture, Part 1
UK coal. US petroleum. China sovereign electricity. The supply side of the first electrostate, assembled.
The Framework
A note on first principles. Why the Smil-Rosling synthesis is the analytical engine of Plain Sight Research.
The Scorecard: Alibaba Q4 FY2026
My quarterly prediction was a disaster. The quarter itself was the strongest forward guidance Eddie Wu has ever given.
Solar, Batteries and…Hauling Rocks?
Chinese miners expanded copper 16% and gold 43% during the supercycle. Western majors contracted 18–60%.
The Oil Surplus Nobody Is Modeling
Permanent structural surplus by 2028–2029. Five demand-destruction forces the consensus underestimates.
If China Leads in Solar, Why Is It Building More Coal?
Three answers to the coal question. The third one — coal-to-olefins — is the thesis nobody in Western energy markets has priced.
Swimming With the Current: Alibaba at $124
A $295B megacap trading at 40–45% of fair value. The algorithm reads collapse; it's actually a pivot.
Reading Words: What the 15th Five-Year Plan Actually Says
The FYP as deployment order, not speculative bet. Why TFP is China's new organizational scorecard.
The IEA Error: Why Every China Forecast Is Wrong in the Same Direction
China export consensus misses 2024–2026. The same structural misforecast the IEA made on solar, applied to trade surplus.